SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) still a powerful and compact CAT 4, Invest 91S up-graded to Medium west of Réunion, 06/18utc update


06/18UTC. 9H ANIMATION. CAT4 24S(HABANA) ON THE RIGHT END. ON THE LEFT END INVEST 91S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 30KNOTS WITH ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


06/18UTC. 9H ANIMATION. CAT4 24S(HABANA) ON THE RIGHT END. ON THE LEFT END INVEST 91S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 30KNOTS WITH ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
06/18UTC. 9H ANIMATION. CAT4 24S(HABANA) ON THE RIGHT END. ON THE LEFT END INVEST 91S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 30KNOTS WITH ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 MAR 06 1830UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 06, 2021:
Location: 16.6°S 78.9°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt (220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 942 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
LOCATED AT 06/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 1680KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #91S   #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 06, 2021:
Location: 21.9°S 53.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM.
LOCATED AT 06/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 250KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RÉUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33KM/H.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

24S(HABANA). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC PREDICTED THE CYCLONE TO BE DOWN-GRADED TO CATEGORY 3 BY 06/18UTC. BUT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 AT 06/18UTC.
24S(HABANA). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC PREDICTED THE CYCLONE TO BE DOWN-GRADED TO CATEGORY 3 BY 06/18UTC. BUT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 AT 06/18UTC.


24S(HABANA). MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TURN AT MEDIUM RANGE. AFTER A POSSIBLE WEAKENING PERIOD A NEW INTENSIFICATION SPAN IS HINTED AT.
24S(HABANA). MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TURN AT MEDIUM RANGE. AFTER A POSSIBLE WEAKENING PERIOD A NEW INTENSIFICATION SPAN IS HINTED AT.


24S(HABANA). 06/1107UTC. DMSP DEPICTED THE WELL DEFINED BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE EYE CLEARED OUT AGAIN LATER.
24S(HABANA). 06/1107UTC. DMSP DEPICTED THE WELL DEFINED BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE EYE CLEARED OUT AGAIN LATER.


24S(HABANA). 06/1347UTC. MICROWAVE SHOWCASES THE EXTREMELY COMPACT SIGNATURE OF THIS INTENSE SYSTEM.
24S(HABANA). 06/1347UTC. MICROWAVE SHOWCASES THE EXTREMELY COMPACT SIGNATURE OF THIS INTENSE SYSTEM.


24S(HABANA). 06/0547UTC. MORNING-TIME(LOCAL) METOP OVERPASS SHOWCASING THE CYCLONE'S SYMMETRICAL AND INTENSE SIGNATURE . EUMETSAT.
24S(HABANA). 06/0547UTC. MORNING-TIME(LOCAL) METOP OVERPASS SHOWCASING THE CYCLONE'S SYMMETRICAL AND INTENSE SIGNATURE . EUMETSAT.

INVEST 91S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,  MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT  THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING MARGINAL  CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INVEST 91S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING MARGINAL CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

INVEST 91S. 06/18UTC. INTENSE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO TRACK PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. EUMETSAT.
INVEST 91S. 06/18UTC. INTENSE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO TRACK PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. EUMETSAT.

INVEST 91S. 06/1825UTC. THUNDERY ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF RÉUNION ISLAND.
INVEST 91S. 06/1825UTC. THUNDERY ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF RÉUNION ISLAND.

06/18UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA). WARNING 17/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 06/09UTC FOR 22S(MARIAN). INVEST 91S IS NOW ASSESSED AS HAVING MEDIUM CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 4 SYSTEMS.
06/18UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA). WARNING 17/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 06/09UTC FOR 22S(MARIAN). INVEST 91S IS NOW ASSESSED AS HAVING MEDIUM CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 4 SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 6 Mars 2021 à 23:15