SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) still a US/Category 2, Smap(Nasa) agreed very well, 02/03utc update


22S(MARIAN). 02/0335UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DECREASED IN SIZE TO 45KM. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


22S(MARIAN). 02/0335UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED  AND THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX  HOURS AND DECREASED IN SIZE TO 45KM. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
22S(MARIAN). 02/0335UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DECREASED IN SIZE TO 45KM. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
2021 MAR 02 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S #MARIAN  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 9
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 02, 2021:
Location: 18.6°S 89.5°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 964 mb
CATEGORY US : 2
LOCATED AT 02/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 1070 KM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

22S(MARIAN). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 02/03UTC.TC 22S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE  (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE  SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LIMITS THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS), WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW  LIMITING THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, AND  THE DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY FURTHER  INTENSIFICATION WITH TC MARIAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR TO  THE SOUTH WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE  TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO A TRANSITION OF THE  PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TO THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22S WILL  ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND THE  AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AFTER 12H. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES  SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER SEAS AND ENCOUNTER  CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 96H  AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A  SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER 96H AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE UNDER A MID-LEVEL  LOW AND EXHIBITS WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 02/03UTC.TC 22S HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS BEGINNING TO ROUND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LIMITS THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KTS), WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW LIMITING THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT. THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS, AND THE DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH TC MARIAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL TRANSIT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO A TRANSITION OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TO THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AFTER 12H. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL MOVE OVER STEADILY COOLER SEAS AND ENCOUNTER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 96H AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFTER 96H AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE UNDER A MID-LEVEL LOW AND EXHIBITS WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION.

22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 125KM SPREAD AT 72H AND ONLY INCREASES TO  220KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 125KM SPREAD AT 72H AND ONLY INCREASES TO 220KM AT 120H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

22S(MARIAN). 01/2357UTC. SMAP READ 76KNOT WINDS( 10 MINUTES). NEAR PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THE 1MINUTE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM JTWC( 90KNOTS).
22S(MARIAN). 01/2357UTC. SMAP READ 76KNOT WINDS( 10 MINUTES). NEAR PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THE 1MINUTE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM JTWC( 90KNOTS).

22S(MARIAN). 02/00UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.7 m/s ( 7.3 kts) Direction :  114.6 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H
22S(MARIAN). 02/00UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.7 m/s ( 7.3 kts) Direction : 114.6 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H

22S(MARIAN). 02/00UTC. SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
22S(MARIAN). 02/00UTC. SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

 

02/03UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY WARNING ON TC 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
02/03UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY WARNING ON TC 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 2 Mars 2021 à 08:05