SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) forecast to reach US/Category 2 by 72hours over open waters, 26/15utc update


22S(MARIAN). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED WITH A FORMATIVE PINHOLE EYE BECOMING APPARENT AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


22S(MARIAN). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY  SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE  OVERCAST DEEPENED WITH A FORMATIVE PINHOLE EYE BECOMING APPARENT AND  RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
22S(MARIAN). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED WITH A FORMATIVE PINHOLE EYE BECOMING APPARENT AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 FEB 26 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 2
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2021:
Location: 14.8°S 97.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 26/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 280KM SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND/AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 28 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

22S(MARIAN). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 26/15UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW  TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL  OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE  CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C. TC 22S WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO  SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER 48H, THE CYCLONE  WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, AND AFTER  96H, WILL RE-ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE  STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL  INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS/US CATEGORY 2 BY 72H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING  WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL  GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 120H.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 26/15UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C. TC 22S WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER 48H, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, AND AFTER 96H, WILL RE-ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS/US CATEGORY 2 BY 72H. AFTERWARD, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 120H.

22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP 48H, LENDING HIGH  CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST; AFTERWARD,  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TRAJECTORIES AND ALONG- TRACK SPEEDS AS THE VORTEX NAVIGATES THE TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS,  LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK  FORECAST.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP 48H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST; AFTERWARD, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TRAJECTORIES AND ALONG- TRACK SPEEDS AS THE VORTEX NAVIGATES THE TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

22S(MARIAN). 26/0850UTC.
22S(MARIAN). 26/0850UTC.

22S(MARIAN). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE.                      CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude :   11.6 m/s (22.6 kts)                                           Direction :  101.3 deg. THE 24H TENDENCY IS SLOWLY IMPROVING THOUGH.
22S(MARIAN). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 11.6 m/s (22.6 kts) Direction : 101.3 deg. THE 24H TENDENCY IS SLOWLY IMPROVING THOUGH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 26 Février 2021 à 19:15