SOUTH INDIAN: 19S(FARAJI): rapid intensification on, slow-mover, Invest 91P on the map, 06/09utc updates


19S(FARAJI).06/0830UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


19S(FARAJI).06/0830UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
19S(FARAJI).06/0830UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


06/0830UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S AND 18S.
06/0830UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S AND 18S.
2021 FEB 06 0845UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 3
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 06, 2021:
Location: 14.0°S 79.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
INTENSIFYING
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 06/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1105 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 INVEST #91P   #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 06, 2021:
Location: 15.1°S 137.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC. FARAJI IS TRACKING THROUGH A HIGHLY  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW  ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).THE SYSTEM IS  CURRENTLY IN A COMPLEX, ALBEIT WEAK, STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS LED TO A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SLOW SYSTEM MOTION, COUPLED WITH HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL  CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM TO 90 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2 BY 24H. DURING THIS TIME THE STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS POLEWARD ALONG THE  PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH- EAST. AFTER 12H, TC FARAJI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL STEERING STR WEAKENS. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72H AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST WILL OVERTAKE STEERING AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 90 KNOTS BY 120H.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 06/09UTC. FARAJI IS TRACKING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A COMPLEX, ALBEIT WEAK, STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS LED TO A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SLOW SYSTEM MOTION, COUPLED WITH HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM TO 90 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2 BY 24H. DURING THIS TIME THE STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH- EAST. AFTER 12H, TC FARAJI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL STEERING STR WEAKENS. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72H AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST WILL OVERTAKE STEERING AND BEGIN TO DRIVE TC FARAJI SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 90 KNOTS BY 120H.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD  STORM MOTION AFTER 24/36H, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION IS COMPLICATED BY THE OVERALL COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY  EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE CONTRIBUTION  FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH LIES 185KM SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK AT 36H. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD STORM MOTION AFTER 24/36H, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IN TRACK DIRECTION IS COMPLICATED BY THE OVERALL COMPLEX AND DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH LIES 185KM SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK AT 36H. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

INVEST 91P. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91P  WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENTER OVER NORTHERN  AUSTRALIA, RESULTING IN A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
INVEST 91P. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENTER OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, RESULTING IN A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

19S(FARAJI).06/0915UTC. HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS RAPIDLY IMPROVING SIGNATURE WITH A RAPIDLY BUILDING EYE FEATURE. EUMETSAT. ENHANCED BY PATRICK HOAREAU.
19S(FARAJI).06/0915UTC. HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS RAPIDLY IMPROVING SIGNATURE WITH A RAPIDLY BUILDING EYE FEATURE. EUMETSAT. ENHANCED BY PATRICK HOAREAU.

19S(FARAJI). 06/03UTC. ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW  ALOFT
19S(FARAJI). 06/03UTC. ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT

06/00UTC.
06/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 6 Février 2021 à 13:50