WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN) CAT 4 US, an ERC momentarily stopped a stunning ERI event of 80kt/24h,CAT 5 forecast within 24h/EASTERN PACIFIC: HU 07E(GENEVIEVE) still powerful//29@1130 UTC

JTWC FACEBOOK
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
National Hurricane Center

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 168.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF UTIRIK
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
12W QUICKLY RECOVERING FROM ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH THE
LARGER SECONDARY EYE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. 
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC, WITH THE 
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS (NEARING -90C) CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, 
BUT QUICKLY SPREADING. 12W APPEARS TO BE GEARING UP FOR ANOTHER 
IMPRESSIVE BOUT OF INTENSIFICATION BUT WILL NEED A LITTLE MORE TIME TO 
FURTHER CONSOLIDATE. THE 290513Z SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA REVEALS 12W 
REMAINS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A TIGHT CORE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS 
EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AMPLE 
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), AND VIGOROUS DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE 
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 290630Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 101 KTS AT 290630Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 123 KTS AT 290513Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 116 KTS AT 290500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W (DOLPHIN) WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 96, STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A COMPLEX RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. BETWEEN TAU 96-120, 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE STEERING STR COMPLEX 
WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE STR TO REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM AND DEVELOP A WESTWARD EXTENSION. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING 
PATTERN WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN AT TAU 120. REGARDING 
INTENSITY, DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SECOND ROUND OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE INCREASINGLY IDEAL 
ENVIRONMENT. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 150 KTS 
BETWEEN TAU 36-72, BUT A PEAK INTENSITY HIGHER THAN FORECAST MAY OCCUR 
AROUND TAU 60, GIVEN THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. 12W IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM TAU 72 ONWARD, AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY LOWER 
OHC VALUES AND CONTENDS WITH ITS OWN COLD WAKE. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLES (ERC) ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD INTRODUCE 
UNPREDICTABLE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE PRESENTLY 
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH LESS THAN 200NM CROSS-TRACK 
SPREAD AT TAU 120. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS MINIMAL FOR THE DURATION 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-
120. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE-TERM FORECAST STEMS FROM THE SHIFTING 
STEERING INFLUENCES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY 
AIDS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT. MESOSCALE MODELS HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC 
(GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS), AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM BOUNDARY CONDITIONS), 
DEPICT PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 140-150 KTS, WHILE GLOBAL MODELS 
LAG BEHIND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT VERY
CLOSE TO, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MESOSCALE MODELS WITH OVERALL LOW 
CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE SECOND ROUND OF RI AND PEAK 
INTENSITY HAVE DEGRADED THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
 

JMV FILE
1226072500 104N1716W  20
1226072506 107N1727W  20
1226072512 110N1738W  20
1226072518 114N1749W  20
1226072600 117N1760W  20
1226072606 120N1774W  25
1226072612 125N1789W  25
1226072618 128N1798E  25
1226072700 131N1783E  30
1226072706 132N1767E  35
1226072712 132N1752E  40
1226072718 131N1737E  45
1226072800 131N1728E  60
1226072806 132N1717E  75
1226072812 134N1707E 100
1226072818 137N1699E 125
1226072900 141N1691E 120
1226072906 145N1684E 120
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 290832 

A. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN)

B. 29/0830Z

C. 14.73N

D. 167.99E

E. THREE/HMWRI9

F. T6.0/6.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS 
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF 
6.5. MET YIELDS A 6.0. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/0345Z  14.37N  168.65E  GPMI
   29/0513Z  14.57N  168.33E  SSMS
   29/0730Z  14.73N  168.07E  SSMS


   DOMINGUEZ

Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2026-07-29 06:47:10 UTC
Storm Name: WP122026 / DOLPHIN
Storm ID: WP12
Storm Center Longitude: 168.165
Storm Center Latitude: 14.651
Incidence Angle (Degrees): -1.000
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 120.46
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 121.94
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): N/A
RMax (nmi): 10.00 - 11.00

EP, 07, 202607290136,  30, SMAP,         IR,  , 1820N, 11720W,      , 1,  96, 1,     ,  ,     ,  34,  NEQ,  107,  100,  100,  113,  ,  ,  ,  , 1,   0,    , E,  NASA, RSS,  ,    ,       ,   ,     ,     ,     ,    ,       ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  , 1,  max. wind is 10 minute sustained                    
EP, 07, 202607290136,  30, SMAP,         IR,  , 1820N, 11720W,      , 1,  96, 1,     ,  ,     ,  50,  NEQ,   65,   54,   60,   75,  ,  ,  ,  , 1,   0,    , E,  NASA, RSS,  ,    ,       ,   ,     ,     ,     ,    ,       ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  , 1,  max. wind is 10 minute sustained                    
EP, 07, 202607290136,  30, SMAP,         IR,  , 1820N, 11720W,      , 1,  96, 1,     ,  ,     ,  64,  NEQ,   39,   38,   46,   60,  ,  ,  ,  , 1,   0,    , E,  NASA, RSS,  ,    ,       ,   ,     ,     ,     ,    ,       ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  , 1,  max. wind is 10 minute sustained