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SHEM: 17P(LUCAS) intensifying and approaching Vanuatu/New Caledonia area, 15P(ANA), 18S, 16P(BINA), remnants 13S: 01/09utc updates


01/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 15P(ANA), 17P(LUCAS), 18S. FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 01/03UTC FOR 16P(BINA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 15P,17P,18S WHEREAS THE FINAL FIX FOR 16P WAS ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC.


01/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 15P(ANA), 17P(LUCAS), 18S. FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 01/03UTC FOR 16P(BINA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 15P,17P,18S WHEREAS THE FINAL FIX FOR 16P WAS ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC.
01/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 15P(ANA), 17P(LUCAS), 18S. FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 01/03UTC FOR 16P(BINA). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 15P,17P,18S WHEREAS THE FINAL FIX FOR 16P WAS ISSUED AT 01/0530UTC.
2021 FEB 01 0945UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #15P #ANA #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 10
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 01, 2021:
Location: 21.9°S 179.5°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt (120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
WEAKENING
15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #17P #LUCAS  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 6
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 01, 2021:
Location: 14.8°S 160.9°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70kt (130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
INTENSIFYING
17P(LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 980 KM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #16P #BINA  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
WARNING 6/ UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 01, 2021:
Location: 16.8°S 178.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure:  998 mb
16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 KM NORTEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS OVER-LAND( VANUA LEVU) AND IS FILLING UP.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #18S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 4
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 01, 2021:
Location: 20.6°S 119.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt (75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 KM SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REMNANTS #13S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 01, 2021:
Location: 13.1°S 58.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
 
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

15P(ANA). WARNING 10.TC 15P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 36H ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR (35-40 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 26-25C AFTER TAU 12H, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING WITH INTENSITY FALLING DOWN BELOW 35KNOTS BY 36H.
15P(ANA). WARNING 10.TC 15P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 36H ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR (35-40 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 26-25C AFTER TAU 12H, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING WITH INTENSITY FALLING DOWN BELOW 35KNOTS BY 36H.

17P(LUCAS). WARNING 6. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH 36H BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48H, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 96H.TC 17P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 12H BUT SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WIND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 96H AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH.
17P(LUCAS). WARNING 6. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH 36H BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48H, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 96H.TC 17P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 12H BUT SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WIND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOL TO 25C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 96H AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH.

16P(BINA). WARNING 6.FINAL. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 45KNOTS.
16P(BINA). WARNING 6.FINAL. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 45KNOTS.
JMV FILE
1621012812 138S1615E  15
1621012818 138S1620E  15
1621012900 138S1625E  20
1621012906 138S1630E  20
1621012912 135S1635E  25
1621012918 132S1645E  25
1621013000 126S1659E  25
1621013006 121S1676E  30
1621013012 119S1693E  30
1621013018 117S1713E  35
1621013100 118S1729E  40
1621013106 124S1741E  45
1621013112 134S1751E  45
1621013118 143S1763E  40
1621020100 156S1775E  35

18S. WARNING 4.TC 18S SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL A BROAD TROUGH FORMS WEST OF AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFTER 72H.TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA AND LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY 96H WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEAS.
18S. WARNING 4.TC 18S SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL A BROAD TROUGH FORMS WEST OF AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFTER 72H.TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES THE EXMOUTH PENINSULA AND LEARMONTH SOLAR OBSERVATORY. AFTER 48H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY 96H WITH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEAS.

15P(ANA). 01/0920UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE REGION OF STRATOCUMULUS (COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR) ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 010425Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
15P(ANA). 01/0920UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE REGION OF STRATOCUMULUS (COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR) ADVECTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 010425Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

17P(LUCAS). 01/0920UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 010516Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
17P(LUCAS). 01/0920UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 010516Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.


18S. 01/0920UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR INDICATES A WELL- ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A 010619Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY.
18S. 01/0920UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR INDICATES A WELL- ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A 010619Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY.

REMNANTS 13S. 01/0930UTC.
REMNANTS 13S. 01/0930UTC.

15P(ANA).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 85KM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 36H.
15P(ANA).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 85KM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 36H.

17P(LUCAS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS. NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72H WHILE THE UKMET TRACKER AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS INDICATE A TRACK FURTHER EAST NEAR VANUATU. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
17P(LUCAS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS. NAVGEM TRACKS THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72H WHILE THE UKMET TRACKER AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS INDICATE A TRACK FURTHER EAST NEAR VANUATU. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

18S.WHILE ALL TRACKERS DEPICT THE SOUTHWARD TURN THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SOUTHWARD TURN. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
18S.WHILE ALL TRACKERS DEPICT THE SOUTHWARD TURN THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SOUTHWARD TURN. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

17P(LUCAS). 01/0738UTC. MULTI-SENSOR. MICROWAVE EYE WELL DEPICTED.
17P(LUCAS). 01/0738UTC. MULTI-SENSOR. MICROWAVE EYE WELL DEPICTED.

01/00UTC.
01/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, February 1st 2021 à 14:50
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