SHEM: 13S remains under close watch, Invest 94P still over Cape York, Invest 96P slowly consolidating East of Vanuatu, 28/06ut update


28/0530UTC. 13S(NONAME) REMAINS UNDER CLOSE WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. INVEST 94P IS STILL OVER-LAND OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA. INVEST 96P REMAINS MEDIUM AND UNDER CLOSE SURVEILLANCE AS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN 24/48HOURS.


28/0530UTC. 13S(NONAME) REMAINS UNDER CLOSE WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. INVEST 94P IS STILL OVER-LAND OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA. INVEST 96P REMAINS MEDIUM AND UNDER CLOSE SURVEILLANCE AS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN 24/48HOURS.
28/0530UTC. 13S(NONAME) REMAINS UNDER CLOSE WATCH FOR ANY SIGNS OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. INVEST 94P IS STILL OVER-LAND OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA. INVEST 96P REMAINS MEDIUM AND UNDER CLOSE SURVEILLANCE AS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN 24/48HOURS.

 

13S(NONAME). JTWC ISSUED WARNING 15 AS A FINAL WARNING AT 28/03UTC AS THE INTENSITY DROPPED DOWN TO 25KNOTS.HOWEVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER CLOSE SURVEILLANCE SINCE RE-INTENSIFICATION IS STILL A DISCTINCT POSSIBILITY BY 72HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER. NOTE THAT AT 28/06UTC THE INTENSITY IS UP AT 30KNOTS AGAIN.
13S(NONAME). JTWC ISSUED WARNING 15 AS A FINAL WARNING AT 28/03UTC AS THE INTENSITY DROPPED DOWN TO 25KNOTS.HOWEVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER CLOSE SURVEILLANCE SINCE RE-INTENSIFICATION IS STILL A DISCTINCT POSSIBILITY BY 72HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER. NOTE THAT AT 28/06UTC THE INTENSITY IS UP AT 30KNOTS AGAIN.
2021 JAN 28 07UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #13S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 28, 2021:
Location: 18.7°S 85.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
13S (NONAME), LOCATED AT 28/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 1980KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 31KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------
INVEST #94P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 28, 2021:
Location: 14.7°S 143.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
OVER-LAND
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #96P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 28, 2021:
Location: 15.6°S 170.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

13S(NONAME). 28/0354UTC. 30KNOTS WINDS DETECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
13S(NONAME). 28/0354UTC. 30KNOTS WINDS DETECTED SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

INVEST 94P. 28/0619UTC. THE OVER-LAND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DELIVERING LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENISNSULA.
INVEST 94P. 28/0619UTC. THE OVER-LAND DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DELIVERING LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENISNSULA.

INVEST 96P. 28/0541UTC. THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING TO THE EAST OF VANUATU.
INVEST 96P. 28/0541UTC. THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING TO THE EAST OF VANUATU.

13S. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AT MEDIUM RANGE.
13S. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT A POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AT MEDIUM RANGE.

INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS  INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE  YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER.
INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER.

INVEST 96P. LOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL  TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INVEST 96P. LOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

28/00UTC
28/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 28 Janvier 2021 à 11:55