meteo





PODUL(13W) tracking to the south of Hainan but has failed to intensify


Warning 11/JTWC


Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS PODUL(13W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 29, 2019:
Location: 17.5°N 111.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (PODUL) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY
50NM SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT'S SUPERIMPOSED WELL
WITH IN AN LLC FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM
CMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL AT
BEST WITH UNFAVORABLY STRONG (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSETTING STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW, IN-PHASE STORM MOTION, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS PODUL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR, CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN, AND MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTH CENTRAL VIETNAM AROUND TAU 24. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY UP TO 12 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION NO LATER THAN TAU 48.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL
COSENSUS.//
NNNN


29/0220UTC
29/0220UTC

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29/00UTC
29/00UTC

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TRACK GUIDANCE

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 29 Août 2019 à 06:56