PODUL(13W) relocated, intensifying a bit over the South China Sea


Warning 8/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS PODUL(13W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 28, 2019:
Location: 17.0°N 115.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (PODUL) WARNING NR
08 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO, AND OBSCURING,
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 280617Z ATMS 88 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
MORE CLEARLY SHOWED WHERE THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPING. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE-TO-STRONG (20-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSETTING FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 CELSIUS). TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY RESULTED IN AN OVER 100 NM WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 280000Z
POSITION. THE CURRENT 280600Z POSITION INDICATES 13W HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK WITH A 15-20 KT WESTWARD FORWARD SPEED.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TS 13W SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR,
MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL VIETNAM, AND CONTINUE INLAND UNTIL
DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. CONTINUED MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED POSITION OF TS 13W BASED
ON NEWLY AVAILABLE MICROWAVE AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE DATA.//
NNNN


28/06UTC
28/06UTC

28/0651UTC. DMSP
28/0651UTC. DMSP

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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 28 Août 2019 à 12:28