Nakri(25W) now over-land,Peak intensity was 65kts. Invest 92W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

over-land TS NAKRI(25W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 11, 2019:

Location: 13.0°N 108.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
JMV FILE/JTWC

2519110318 130N1152E  20
2519110400 131N1151E  20
2519110406 133N1150E  20
2519110412 135N1151E  20
2519110418 137N1152E  20
2519110500 138N1154E  20
2519110506 137N1156E  20
2519110512 135N1157E  20
2519110518 135N1159E  25
2519110600 133N1161E  30
2519110606 132N1164E  35
2519110612 133N1167E  40
2519110618 133N1169E  40
2519110700 133N1171E  50
2519110706 133N1173E  55
2519110712 132N1172E  60
2519110718 130N1171E  60
2519110800 128N1171E  60
2519110806 127N1167E  65
2519110812 127N1164E  65
2519110818 126N1157E  65
2519110900 124N1150E  60
2519110906 126N1140E  60
2519110912 127N1132E  55
2519110918 130N1130E  55
2519111000 128N1119E  55
2519111006 129N1109E  55
2519111012 128N1099E  55
2519111018 129N1092E  45
NNNN


INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 11, 2019:

Location: 14.0°N 166.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 110600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY
272 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 102312Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, 92W IS AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
110300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 11, 2019:
Location: 13.3°N 133.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 110600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 818 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  A PARTIAL 102104Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

 

INVEST 92W: TCFA
INVEST 92W: TCFA

INVEST 92W: GFS ENSEMBLE
INVEST 92W: GFS ENSEMBLE

INVEST 91W: GFS ENSEMBLE
INVEST 91W: GFS ENSEMBLE

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 11 Novembre 2019 à 13:24