Mitag(19W) becoming extratropical



19W: WARNING 24. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
19W: WARNING 24. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS MITAG(19W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 03, 2019:

Location: 37.5°N 129.6°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.THE
SHEARED CONVECTION AND INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURES INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE
OF THE LLCC BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND JMA RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE FROM
OBSERVATION STATIONS THAT ARE OVER 50 NM FROM THE INITIAL POSITION
ON ULLEUNGDO ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THE MID-LATITUDE JET IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, CREATING A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE GOOD OUTFLOW
IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL UNFAVOURABLE. TS 19W IS
TRACKING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS 19W WILL SHIFT ONTO A MORE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE ETT AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ETT SHOULD COMPLETE AROUND TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, 19W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHERN HONSHU, TRACKING SOUTH OF MISAWA. THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE DETERIORATING CIRCULATION UNTIL IT PASSES OVER JAPAN INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 45 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER
BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO 40 KNOTS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL ON HONSHU.
THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AND
GFS AS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS. HOWEVER,
THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IS ALREADY EXCEEDING THE FORECAST SPEED, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ALONG TRACK ERRORS. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH ALONG-TRACK ERRORS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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INVEST 93W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 03, 2019:

Location: 14.0°N 170.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure:
 

03/0530UTC
03/0530UTC

19W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
19W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

03/00UTC
03/00UTC

03/00UTC
03/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 3 Octobre 2019 à 11:02