Matmo(23W), Kyarr(04A) and Invest 99B updates



TS 23W & TC 04A
TS 23W & TC 04A
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS MATMO(23W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 13.2°N 111.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STROM 23W (MATMO) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS RAIN BANDS MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 292344Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE. UL AND LL ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (>25-KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OFFSET BY ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-32C) ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MATMO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR,
MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM,
APPROXIMATELY 150NM SOUTH OF DA NANG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS BY TAU 12;
AFTERWARD, A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AND INTO THE
RUGGED VIETNAMESE TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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NORTH INDIAN

TC KYARR(04A)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 19.6°N 62.2°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 62.0E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO TO ELONGATE AND
STRETCH ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
WARMED UP, AN INDICATION OF WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME
TOTALLY OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 292338Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0/95KTS TO
T5.5/102KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. TC 04A IS IN THE COL
BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) AND IS
SWITCHING SLOWLY TO THE WESTERN STR FOR STEERING AND, SHOULD NOW
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHES WITH MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF DRY AIR FROM
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC KYARR WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE HORN OF
AFRICA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 OVER LAND.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
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INVEST 99B
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 30, 2019:

Location: 7.7°N 75.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 291800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 66.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 76.5E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM SOUTH OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 291226Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION ABOVE A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG UL
DIVERGENCE DUE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30C)
SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
 

TC 04A: WEAKENING RAPIDLY DOWN TO BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 24H
TC 04A: WEAKENING RAPIDLY DOWN TO BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 24H

TS 23W: PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12H
TS 23W: PEAK INTENSITY OF 40KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12H


23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

23W. HWRF: 52KTS AT +06H
23W. HWRF: 52KTS AT +06H

04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
04A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

04A: HWRF: 119KTS AT +06H
04A: HWRF: 119KTS AT +06H

INVEST 99B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 99B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 99B. HWRF: 108KTS AT +126H
INVEST 99B. HWRF: 108KTS AT +126H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 30 Octobre 2019 à 06:53