meteo





Lingling: landfall cat 1 over NKorea within 12hours. Faxai: cat 2 near Tokyo after 36h



Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:
Location: 33.7°N 124.9°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASINGLY
RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE EIR,
SUPPORTED BY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 061311Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND ANALYSIS OF THE ACCOMPANYING ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, AND T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TO REFLECT AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.9 (89
KNOTS) FROM CIMSS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
LIES IN AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-25 KT), LOW SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), OFFSETTING FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE STORM AND
THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR VECTOR, THE ACTUAL RELATIVE SHEAR IMPACTING THE
SYSTEM IS LOW, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
HAVE NOT YET DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER LEVELS, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED
WITH SUCH A HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR VALUE. THE NET EFFECT IS THAT
WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM IS ONLY
SLOWLY WEAKENING. TY 15W IS TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEX 12 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF NORTH
KOREA BY TAU 12, THEN SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN KOREAN PENINSULA
AS IT SIMULTANEOUSLY UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
AROUND TAU 12. ETT IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24 AS THE
SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER NORTHEASTERN MANCHURIA. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TY FAXAI (14W)
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:
Location: 25.6°N 146.4°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts : 85kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM EAST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A NASCENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061724Z SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 60
KNOTS FROM 061126Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SSTS. TY
FAXAI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 14W WILL CONTINUE ON THE PRESENT TRACK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER STR. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
STR AXIS, PASSING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 40, THEN ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM TAU 48 TO 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 40 AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ON THE
HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN LIGHT OF SEVERAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICATORS BEING TRIPPED. AN INTENSITY OF 95
KNOTS IS FORECAST AT LANDFALL HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REACH
MAXIMUM INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS AND TAPS INTO THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
JAPAN. BEYOND TAU 48, COOLER SSTS, AND INCREASING VWS WILL COMBINE
TO OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TY 15W AS IT
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE TRANSITING RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY 60NM
SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO 125NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. BY TAU 96, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD,
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW, AND TRANSITION TO A GALE-
FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, WITH
INCREASING ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS.
BASED ON THE INCREASED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY TAU 96, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 95W
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:

Location: 13.2°N 152.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 061500
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY
485 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 061125Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
CONFUSED, WEAK LLC SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY WHILE REMAINING VERY BROAD. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION, WITH TRACKERS VARYING FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

15W: WARNING 20
15W: WARNING 20

14W: WARNING 21
14W: WARNING 21


15W & 14W: 06/2130UTC. IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR 15W
15W & 14W: 06/2130UTC. IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR 15W

14W: 06/22UTC. INTENSIFYING
14W: 06/22UTC. INTENSIFYING


14W: 06/2130UTC. INTENSIFYING
14W: 06/2130UTC. INTENSIFYING

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

06/1730UTC
06/1730UTC

06/22UTC. CIRA
06/22UTC. CIRA
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 7 Septembre 2019 à 02:14