meteo





Lingling(15W) : category 4, landfall over North Korea in 48h as a cat 2. Faxai(14W): update


15W: Warning 15. 14W: Warning 16


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 05, 2019:
Location: 25.7°N 125.3°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 935 mb
CATEGORY US: 4

WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON A 20 NM EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. BOTH DATA SOURCES ALSO SHOW THE EYEWALL
HAS BECOME LESS UNIFORM WITH A REGION OF WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER REFLECTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT,
RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), IS FAVORABLE. TY 15W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE TYPHOON WILL
TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT THE STR TO THE EAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS SST COOLS AND
VWS INCREASES. AS A RESULT, THE TYPHOON WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 90
KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NORTH KOREA AROUND TAU 48. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, HIGH VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN
WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THIS CYCLE. THIS SHIFT IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH ON THE HIGH
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, REFLECTS A DOWNWARD SHIFT IN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. CONCURRENTLY AROUND TAU 48, TY 15W
WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE PRIOR TO
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED BY TAU 72. BASED ON THE RELATIVELY
LOW UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS FAXAI (14W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 05, 2019:
Location: 20.1°N 155.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 742 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS OBSCURED BY FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON A 051032Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KTS IS ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35
KTS) BASED ON A 051116Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWING 40 KT WIND
BARBS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. THESE
FEATURES ARE CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CYCLONE AND INHIBITING CONVECTION. THE SUBSIDENCE IS PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST. TS 14W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 14W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN GRADUALLY POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS. TS 14W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS ABOUT 110 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 80 KTS BY TAU 72. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ON THE HIGH END OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, BETWEEN THE PEAK IN COAMPS-
GFS (110 KTS) AND THE OTHER AIDS (50-75 KTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL TURN GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS THE SYSTEM PASS VERY CLOSE TO YOKOTA AB AROUND TAU 78. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND COOLER SST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN
PRIOR TO TAU 96 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS
GOOD CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT BUT SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT
AFTER THE SYSTEM EMBEDS IN THE WESTERLIES. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
PRIMARILY DUE TO ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY.//
NNNN
          ----------------------------------------------------------------------  
Remnants of TD KAJIKI(16W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 05, 2019:
Location: 18.8°N 112.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

15W: WARNING 15
15W: WARNING 15

14W: WARNING 16
14W: WARNING 16

05/17UTC. RAMMB
05/17UTC. RAMMB


15W: 05/12UTC
15W: 05/12UTC

14W: 05/12UTC
14W: 05/12UTC

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 5 Septembre 2019 à 20:44