Lekima category 3, set to intensify to STY intensity within 24hours bearing down on Yaeyama islands


Updates on Krosa(11W), Remnants of Francisco(09W), Invest 96W


LEKIMA(10W): FORECAST TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY(130KNOTS) IN 24H WHILE TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE YAEYAMA ISLANDS
LEKIMA(10W): FORECAST TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY(130KNOTS) IN 24H WHILE TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE YAEYAMA ISLANDS
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:

Location: 21.6°N 127.1°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 947 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
INTENSIFYING

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM EYE AS IT BECAME
MORE COMPACT AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED. THE SYSTEM TRAILS A LARGE RAIN BAND
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A SHARPLY
OUTLINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 070925Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM SST (30C). TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MOVING MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS THE
STR REORIENTS IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. BY TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE EAST COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAIZHOU. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THE RI TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU
24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN IT TO
80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A 125NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36 NEAR TAIWAN, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.   
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD SEA ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM STRADDLES
THE EASTERN CHINESE COAST. BY TAU 120, TY 10W WILL BE REDUCED TO 45
KNOTS AFTER IT PASSES JUST TO THE EAST OF SHANGHAI AND INTO THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE YELLOW SEA. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIVERGE WITH UKMET ON THE LEFT AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE
ENVELOPE, SPANNING A SWATH OF OVER 450NM. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS
LAID TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM SOLUTION
DRIVING THE CYCLONE STRAIGHT INTO THE STR. SINCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK
AFFECTS THE PROJECTED INTENSITY, THERE IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN
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TS KROSA(11W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 21.6°N 141.1°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt (140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb

WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 070925Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED
EIR SIGNATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DRIFTING OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) AND UNDER GOOD POLEWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, AN INDUCED TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THAT SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. TS 11W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A
NORTHEASTWARD ORIENTED TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON
STORM MOTION. FORWARD TRACK SPEED WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST TAU 48 AS RIDGE PATTERN REORIENTS AND THE ASSOCIATED STEERING
INFLUENCES SHIFT. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80KTS BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TRACK SCENARIO. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST TO THE
LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY RIGHT
OUTLIER NAVMEM. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
GROUPING CONSISTING OF THE GFS, NAVGEM AND JGSM MODELS DEPICTING A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO POLEWARD TRACK AND A SECOND GROUPING
CONSISTING OF THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND UKMET MODEL DEPICTING A
STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IN BOTH MODEL SCENARIOS, RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN THE NEAR TERM IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS INDICATE
THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TS 11W, IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH, AND TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING THE SYSTEM ON A TRAJECTORY TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER
MODEL GROUP. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE GIVEN AN
ANTICIPATED ZONAL MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. THUS THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN FAVOR
OF THE ECMWF, UKMET GROUPING. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. GIVEN THE NOTED BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RESTRICTED OUTFLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE INTENSITY TO 50KTS BY TAU 120.//
NNNN
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REMNANTS OF FRANCISCO( 09W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:

Location: 40.8°N 130.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 96W
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 15.8°N 117.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 071000
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 117.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY
225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070220Z 89GHZ MHS METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAK
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 60NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 070221Z METOP-B 25KM
RESOLUTION ASCAT DIRECT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH 10-15 KNOT
WIND BARBS. THERE IS AN AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS 90 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE CONVECTION AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 96W IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE  FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 96W MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BEING
ABSORBED BY TY 10W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
 

10W: WARNING 15/JTWC
10W: WARNING 15/JTWC

11W: WARNING 8/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 80KNOTS FORECAST IN 48H
11W: WARNING 8/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 80KNOTS FORECAST IN 48H


07/14UTC. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TY LEKIMA(10W) AND TS KROSA(11W).
07/14UTC. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TY LEKIMA(10W) AND TS KROSA(11W).

07/1056UTC: TY LEKIMA(10W)
07/1056UTC: TY LEKIMA(10W)

07/0914UTC. DMSP. TY LEKIMA(10W)
07/0914UTC. DMSP. TY LEKIMA(10W)

07/0914UTC. DMSP. TY LEKIMA(10W).
07/0914UTC. DMSP. TY LEKIMA(10W).

07/1115UTC. TS KROSA(11W)
07/1115UTC. TS KROSA(11W)


10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

REMNANTS OF FRANCISCO(09W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMNANTS OF FRANCISCO(09W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 7 Août 2019 à 18:26