meteo





LEKIMA forecast to make landfall close to Taizhou as a strong typhoon within 24h


10W: Warning 21/JTWC. 11W: Warning 14/JWTC


LEKIMA(10W): FORECAST LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF TAIZHOU/CHINA IN LESS THAN 24HOURS AS A STRONG TYPHOON
LEKIMA(10W): FORECAST LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF TAIZHOU/CHINA IN LESS THAN 24HOURS AS A STRONG TYPHOON
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 09, 2019:

Location: 26.4°N 123.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 916 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
WEAKENING

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. A 5-10 NM ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE
THE EYE REMAINING SMALL AND ROUND, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC WITH WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BETWEEN CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM T5.5-6.5 (102-127 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS SUPPORTIVE BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR
ENTRAINING IN FROM THE WEST THAT IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
WEAKENING SEEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 140 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI,
CHINA AROUND TAU 18, TY 10W WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS AND RECEDES SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NEAR SHANGHAI ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 40 AND PASS BRIEFLY
OVER THE YELLOW SEA ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE MAKING
SECOND LANDFALL NEAR QINGDAO, CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 72. LAND
INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SMALL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72.   
   C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 120, TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. HIGH
VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGH
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SEVERAL MODELS (ECMWF,
GALWEM, UKMET) FOLLOW THE RECURVE SCENARIO WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS
SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING SOUTHWARD, POSSIBLY DUE TO DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TY 11W. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE RECURVE
SCENARIO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
BETWEEN THE TWO FEASIBLE FORECAST SCENARIOS.//
NNNN


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TY KROSA(11W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 09, 2019:
Location: 22.0°N 141.1°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WEAKENING

WDPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOT (KT) OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
36 NM RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI).
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OVER ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A T5.0 (90 KTS) PGTW DVORAK
FIX CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE
WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SECTOR DUE TO AN INDUCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TY 11W IS QUASI-
STATIONARY IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, PRIMARY STEERING FOR TY 11W WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE STR AND THE TRACK WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN, PASSING IWO TO AROUND TAU 36. SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SUBSIDENCE, AND CONTINUED
MARGINAL VWS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE AND
WEAKENING TO 70 KTS IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY WHENEVER
THERE IS A TRANSITION BETWEEN STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN IT SHIFTS
MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AT TAU 120, REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
IMPROVED OUTFLOW COULD OCCUR AS TY 11W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, NAVGEM BECOMES AN OBVIOUS EASTERN OUTLIER AND THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO
OFFSET THE OUTLIER. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.//
NNNN

 

10W: WARNING 21. FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO SHANGHAI IN 36H WITH POSSIBLY STILL TYPHOON WINDS
10W: WARNING 21. FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO SHANGHAI IN 36H WITH POSSIBLY STILL TYPHOON WINDS


KROSA(11W): WARNING 14: INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY NEXT 72H BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UP ONCE AGAIN WHEN THE CYCLONE APPORACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN
KROSA(11W): WARNING 14: INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY NEXT 72H BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY UP ONCE AGAIN WHEN THE CYCLONE APPORACHES SOUTHERN JAPAN

09/00UTC.KROSA(11W).
09/00UTC.KROSA(11W).

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 9 Août 2019 à 08:59