Invest 99W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. TC Maha: intensifying. 90W and ex TC Kyarr: updates



TC 05A & INVEST 99W
TC 05A & INVEST 99W
Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

ex TS MATMO(23W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 02, 2019:

Location: 14.0°N 97.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb


INVEST 99W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 02, 2019:

Location: 12.5°N 157.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 158.6E TO 16.0N 153.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 157.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG
WITH A 020645Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) SURROUNDED BY FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030900Z.//
NNNN

INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 02, 2019:

Location: 12.8°N 117.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

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NORTH INDIAN

TC MAHA(05A)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 02, 2019:

Location: 16.4°N 68.2°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 67.9E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 020227Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE; HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPACT CORE WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LOCATION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PGTW AND DEMS. TC
05A IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST; HOWEVER, IT WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
COMPLEX AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA
ERODING THE STR, WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ABRUPT EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL
MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

ex TC KYARR(04A)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 02, 2019:

Location: 13.5°N 55.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

TC 05A: CAT 3 FORECAST IN 72H
TC 05A: CAT 3 FORECAST IN 72H

INVEST 99W: TCFA
INVEST 99W: TCFA

TC 05A: 02/06UTC
TC 05A: 02/06UTC

INVEST 99W: 02/09UTC
INVEST 99W: 02/09UTC

TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 108KTS AT +42H
05A: HWRF: 108KTS AT +42H

INVEST 99W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 99W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

99W: HWRF: 126KTS AT +90H
99W: HWRF: 126KTS AT +90H

INVEST 99W NOW HIGH
INVEST 99W NOW HIGH

02/00UTC
02/00UTC

02/00UTC
02/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 2 Novembre 2019 à 11:59