Invest 99P: High// Invest 95W: Medium// Invest 94W: Low//Invest 98P and remnants of TC 22S(HALIMA), 04/06utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 99P.

04/0415UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 406 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT IN A 040510Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 040251Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CHAOTIC LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE, EVOLVING SHALLOW BANDS, INCLUDING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND NO CLEAR, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED AS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTED NORTHWEST WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKER DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AND HAS INCREASED TO 15-25 KNOTS. FURTHERMORE, GFS HAS SLOWED DEVELOPMENT BUT INDICATES INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE 3-4 DAY TIMEFRAME. ECMWF INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040432Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MEANDERING IN A QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.