Invest 97S is expected to intensify next 72h gradually approaching the Mascarene islands//1106utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 97S.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 583 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW CUMULIFORM CLOUD LINES WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD MAURITIUS AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.