SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/TIMOR SEA: INVEST 97S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 24/21UTC.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ANIMATED AND/OR ENLARGED.
![THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 115 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 115 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.](https://www.meteo974.re/photo/art/default/61211471-44664060.jpg?v=1640390685)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 115 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
![GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.](https://www.meteo974.re/photo/art/default/61211471-44664063.jpg?v=1640390799)
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.