Invest 96W: forecast to track toward Luzon with slow development



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 96W
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 15, 2019:

Location: 16.1°N 135.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 150600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 837 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150435Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

GFS: TRACK GUIDANCE
GFS: TRACK GUIDANCE

 

15/00UTC
15/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 15 Octobre 2019 à 14:04