meteo





Invest 94W: Tropical Cyclone formation Alert issued



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 03, 2019:
Location: 15.7°N 132.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20/25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 031200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 132.0E TO 19.6N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 132.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 031531Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
SLOWLY MIGRATING OVER THE CENTER, THOUGH STILL CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE
TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLC, STRONG
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARC, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSETTING THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW. WHILE
THERE ARE CURRENTLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SURGE
FLOW, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LLC WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE A POSSIBLE TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041200Z.//
NNNN

03/12UTC
03/12UTC

INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 3 Août 2019 à 17:26