Invest 94W: Medium. TC Rita(01P): update at 24/18UTC



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 24, 2019:
Location: 4.3°N 156.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 240600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 419
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 240240Z AMSR2 89/36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETTING LOW
(1O TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING,
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

TC RITA ( 01P)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 24, 2019:
Location: 11.2°S 169.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 169.4E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN A SMALL STR TO
THE WEST WILL SHIFT THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  AFTERWARD, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW SHOULD
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. BY TAU 72, STRONG VWS WILL BEGIN,
HELPING DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE. IN THE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO (SUPPORTED BY NAVGEM AND SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS), THE STR TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z,
251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

TC 01P: FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 60KTS WITHIN 12H
TC 01P: FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 60KTS WITHIN 12H

INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

94W: HWRF: 105KTS AT +114H
94W: HWRF: 105KTS AT +114H

TC 01P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 01P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

01P: HWRF: 57KTS AT +30H
01P: HWRF: 57KTS AT +30H

24/21UTC
24/21UTC

24/00UTC
24/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 25 Novembre 2019 à 00:13