Invest 93W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert: high potential for rapid intensification



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 93W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 05, 2019:

Location: 16.0°N 163.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 050230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 163.6E TO 17.0N 155.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 163.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY
1080 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF A DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 041841Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W
WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060230Z.//

 

GFS: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
GFS: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05/0417UTC
05/0417UTC

05/0230UTC
05/0230UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 5 Octobre 2019 à 08:25