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Invest 92P now TC 11P: forecast to reach 65knots by 48h// Invest 93S is still High// TC 08S(BATSIRAI) now extra-tropical, 09/03utc



JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 11P. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 11P AND INVEST AND INVEST 93S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AT 09/00UTC.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 11P. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 11P AND INVEST AND INVEST 93S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED ON TC 08S(BATSIRAI) AT 09/00UTC.
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
JTWC BIS

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: TC 11P. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 09/03UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ENLARGE IT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY 24H AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO REORIENT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GRANDE TERRE, NEW CALEDONIA AROUND 36H. AFTER 48H, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD DUE TO A PASSING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND BECOME SUBTROPICAL BY 72H. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO 15-25 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SYSTEM TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, REACHING 55 KTS BY 36H. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTERWARDS ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSITY OF 65 KTS/CAT 1 US AROUND 48H. BY 60H, TC 11P WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY 24H AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO REORIENT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD, PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GRANDE TERRE, NEW CALEDONIA AROUND 36H. AFTER 48H, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD DUE TO A PASSING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND BECOME SUBTROPICAL BY 72H. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO 15-25 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SYSTEM TO MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, REACHING 55 KTS BY 36H. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTERWARDS ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSITY OF 65 KTS/CAT 1 US AROUND 48H. BY 60H, TC 11P WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
1122020618 190S1628E  20
1122020700 191S1635E  25
1122020706 192S1643E  25
1122020712 191S1653E  25
1122020718 191S1662E  25
1122020800 189S1670E  25
1122020806 189S1677E  25
1122020812 190S1682E  30
1122020818 192S1687E  30
1122020900 196S1689E  35

Invest 92P now TC 11P: forecast to reach 65knots by 48h// Invest 93S is still High// TC 08S(BATSIRAI) now extra-tropical, 09/03utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A STREAK OF DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A 082030Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GMI IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A STREAK OF DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A 082030Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GMI IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

082030Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
082030Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY A 280 KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 72H. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING MODERATE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 60H FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72H. THE JTWC FORECASTS 65 KTS/CAT 1 US AT 48H AND 72H, BUT GFS INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS/CAT 1 US COULD HAPPEN AT 60H.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY A 280 KM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT 72H. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING MODERATE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 60H FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72H. THE JTWC FORECASTS 65 KTS/CAT 1 US AT 48H AND 72H, BUT GFS INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS/CAT 1 US COULD HAPPEN AT 60H.


08/18UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 93S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 09/03UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ENLARGE IT.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 105.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 695 KM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 082322Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY FAVORABLE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MARGINALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT INVEST 93S ATTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 105.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 695 KM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 082322Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY FAVORABLE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MARGINALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT INVEST 93S ATTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
9322020506  99S1021E  15
9322020512 100S1029E  25
9322020518  99S1032E  25
9322020600  99S1036E  25
9322020606  99S1039E  25
9322020612  99S1042E  25
9322020618 100S1046E  25
9322020700 103S1048E  25
9322020706 109S1052E  30
9322020712 123S1054E  30
9322020718 138S1055E  30
9322020800 145S1056E  30
9322020806 152S1057E  30
9322020812 156S1057E  30
9322020818 161S1056E  30
9322020900 166S1054E  30


GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MARGINALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT INVEST 93S ATTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MARGINALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PREDICT INVEST 93S ATTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME.

08/18UTC. ECMWF ENSEMBLE.


SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 08S(BATSRIAI). WARNING 26/FINAL ISSUED AT 08/15UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ENLARGE IT.

Invest 92P now TC 11P: forecast to reach 65knots by 48h// Invest 93S is still High// TC 08S(BATSIRAI) now extra-tropical, 09/03utc
ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 125KNOTS/CAT 4 US.
0822012318  83S 883E  20
0822012400  88S 890E  20
0822012406  93S 896E  20
0822012412  98S 898E  20
0822012418 103S 901E  25
0822012500 110S 904E  25
0822012506 115S 907E  20
0822012512 122S 909E  20
0822012518 132S 906E  20
0822012600 142S 896E  25
0822012606 144S 881E  30
0822012612 150S 866E  30
0822012618 157S 852E  30
0822012700 164S 837E  35
0822012706 169S 819E  45
0822012712 180S 796E  90
0822012718 185S 777E  65
0822012800 184S 761E  50
0822012806 183S 747E  45
0822012812 183S 734E  45
0822012818 183S 724E  50
0822012900 182S 716E  55
0822012906 181S 707E  65
0822012912 180S 699E  70
0822012918 178S 691E  80
0822013000 175S 681E  95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E  95
0822013106 159S 638E  85
0822013112 159S 632E  80
0822013118 160S 629E  75
0822020100 164S 623E  80
0822020106 168S 610E  85
0822020112 172S 601E  90
0822020118 175S 591E  95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E  60
0822020606 222S 452E  55
0822020612 228S 444E  50
0822020618 231S 433E  40
0822020700 231S 422E  40
0822020706 237S 420E  40
0822020712 246S 418E  40
0822020718 256S 416E  50
0822020800 262S 417E  50
0822020806 268S 417E  40
0822020812 283S 418E  35
0822020818 304S 423E  35

09/0330UTC. Eumetsat. WUS.
09/0330UTC. Eumetsat. WUS.


CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ENLARGE IT.



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, February 9th 2022 à 08:20
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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