Invest 91W: low for the next 24h. Hikaa(03A): peak intensity reached was 85knots, cat 2



25/0715UTC
25/0715UTC
Météo974

M974World

NORTH INDIAN

Remnants of TC Hikaa (03A)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 25, 2019:

Location: 19.1°N 55.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
JMV FILE/JTWC

0319092018 192N 712E  20
0319092100 192N 708E  20
0319092106 192N 705E  25
0319092112 192N 702E  25
0319092118 194N 698E  25
0319092200 197N 695E  25
0319092206 201N 689E  30
0319092212 204N 681E  30
0319092218 205N 670E  35
0319092300 203N 660E  50
0319092306 202N 647E  55
0319092312 202N 635E  70
0319092318 202N 623E  75
0319092400 201N 609E  85
0319092406 200N 595E  80
0319092406 200N 595E  80
0319092412 198N 582E  75
0319092418 197N 570E  60
NNNN

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 25, 2019:

Location: 12.0°N 153.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 250800
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250617Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE REVEALS THE FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. INVEST 91W IS
CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31
TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

 

REMNANTS OF TC 03A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMNANTS OF TC 03A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 91W: EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE

25/00UTC
25/00UTC

25/00UTC
25/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 25 Septembre 2019 à 15:05