Invest 91W and Invest 92W are now Medium. Invest 90W still low


Updates at 31/10UTC.


INVEST 91W and INVEST92W ARE BOTH MEDIUM
INVEST 91W and INVEST92W ARE BOTH MEDIUM
Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 19.2°N 121.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 122.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY
53 NM NORTH OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. AMSI SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
WEST. A 310754Z SSMIS F-16 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SINGULAR BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. A
310150Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LLCC. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SSTS
BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 6.5°N 132.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI SHOWS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 310808Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE LLC TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
IN. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 13.7°N 174.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY
498 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED WITH
BROAD OVERCAST AND DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A
310516Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 90W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31 TO 32
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 31 Août 2019 à 15:51