Invest 91W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. TD 26W: update



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD 26W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 11, 2019:

Location: 14.7°N 163.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1038 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED AND PARTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 111624Z SSMI 36GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. BASED ON ANALYSES, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29C)
ALONG-TRACK SST VALUES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 26W WILL CONTINUE IN ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR UP TO
TAU 72. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 75KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 26W WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, CREST THE STR AXIS, AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. STRONG JET WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
INTRODUCE A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND BRING THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK
OF 85KTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, TD 26W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING TO 240NM BY
TAU 120; HOWEVER, THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE ALONG-TRACK
SPEED ESPECIALLY DURING THE RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN


INVEST 91W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 11, 2019:
Location: 12.0°N 132.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 112130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 132.6E TO 13.3N 127.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111118Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 132.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY
496 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111831Z 89GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY BEING ON THE EDGE OF UNFAVORABLE (15 TO
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122130Z.//
NNNN
 

FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 48H
FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 48H

INVEST 91W: TCFA
INVEST 91W: TCFA


11/18UTC. TD 26W
11/18UTC. TD 26W

11/2130UTC. INVEST 91W
11/2130UTC. INVEST 91W

TD 26W. CLICK TO ANIMATE
TD 26W. CLICK TO ANIMATE

INVEST 91W: CLICK TO ANIMATE
INVEST 91W: CLICK TO ANIMATE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 11 Novembre 2019 à 23:47