INVEST 98W: the area is now HIGH albeit still poorly organized



https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 98W
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 16, 2019:

Location: 16.9°N 126.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY
565 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160136Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST OF THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT DUE TO A
CO-LOCATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS LOW (5-10KTS) OVER THE LLC AND HIGH
(25-40KTS) ELSEWHERE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (30-
32C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME SPREAD IN TRACK. 98W IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST IN THE NEAR TERM BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. RECENT GFS
MODEL OUTPUT HAS 98W STAYING OFFSHORE AND REACHING THE JAPANESE
MAINLAND, WHILE ALL OTHERS SHOW LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE COAST
NEAR SHANGHAI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 152230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.


 

0530UTC. EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CORE AT THE MOMENT.
0530UTC. EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH AN ILL-DEFINED CORE AT THE MOMENT.

0021UTC. STRONG WINDS ARE FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER
0021UTC. STRONG WINDS ARE FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 16 Juillet 2019 à 08:31