meteo





INVEST 95E: likely development next 36hours


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 95E
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 05, 2019:

Location: 10.8°N 106.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
WTPN21 PHNC 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 106.2W TO 13.5N 113.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 106.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 106.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LLC
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH PERIPHERY. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE INVEST.
SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.
//
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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 5 Juillet 2019 à 09:01