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INVEST 92B: TCFA issued// INVEST 95W MEDIUM//0818utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF 12W AND ON INVEST 92B.
JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF 12W AND ON INVEST 92B.


NORTH INDIAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 92B. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 08/09UC. ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0818UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 86.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SHALLOW CONSOLIDATING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING. A PARTIAL 080341Z GPM GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATELY DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES C. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR IS THE ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER A SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS AND THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES FARTHER NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 86.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SHALLOW CONSOLIDATING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING. A PARTIAL 080341Z GPM GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATELY DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES C. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR IS THE ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER A SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS AND THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES FARTHER NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
9224090706 171N 851E  15
9224090712 172N 858E  15
9224090718 174N 864E  25
9224090800 178N 871E  25
9224090806 179N 867E  25
9224090812 182N 862E  25

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
2024io92_hfsaspmw_202409081200_f006.png 2024io92_hfsaspmw_202409081200_f006.png  (501.02 KB)
2024io92_ctcxdiag_202409081200.png 2024io92_ctcxdiag_202409081200.png  (217.43 KB)

SATELLITE BULLETIN ANALYSIS AT 081730UTC

INVEST 92B: TCFA issued// INVEST 95W MEDIUM//0818utc
TPIO10 PGTW 081752

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92B (E OF INDIA)

B. 08/1726Z

C. 18.72N

D. 86.66E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/21HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/1220Z  18.00N  86.68E  SSMS


   SWANSON

 

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 95W. ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0806UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 159.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A PARTIAL 080341Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH WEAKLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER 062339Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS CYCLONIC BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING REGION BUT AN ABSENCE OF WESTERLY SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 159.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A PARTIAL 080341Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH WEAKLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER 062339Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS CYCLONIC BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING REGION BUT AN ABSENCE OF WESTERLY SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15KTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

 

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 94W. ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0806UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100NM AND THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WITH SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY BROAD AND UNDERGO ONLY LIMITED CONSOLIDATION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS GREATER THAN 100NM AND THE HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SATELLITE (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WITH SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30-31 DEGREES C. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY BROAD AND UNDERGO ONLY LIMITED CONSOLIDATION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

 

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND DEVELOP SOME ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Sunday, September 8th 2024 à 22:33
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