meteo





INVEST 91W : moderate chances of development. INVEST 96S: development unlikely


INVEST 91W is MEDIUM for the next 24hours


24/06UTC.
24/06UTC.
Météo974
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 24, 2019:

Location: 24.7°N 136.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

 ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.8N 135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY
705 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED
AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 27-28C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE (SOUTH INDIAN)

INVEST 96S
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 24, 2019:

Location: 15.8°S 67.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.0S 70.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 69.5E APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231419Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACE TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 96S IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE(15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE AT
27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD, MOVING INTO COOLER SSTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN

 

24/06UTC: INVEST 91W STILL ANALYZED AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP A WARM CORE AND BECOME FULLY TROPICAL WHILE APPROACHING JAPAN.
24/06UTC: INVEST 91W STILL ANALYZED AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP A WARM CORE AND BECOME FULLY TROPICAL WHILE APPROACHING JAPAN.

24/06UTC: INVEST 96S IS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED AND BATTLING WIND-SHEAR. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
24/06UTC: INVEST 96S IS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED AND BATTLING WIND-SHEAR. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR UNLIKELY.

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96S: LIMITED GUIDANCE WITH NO DEVELOPMENT DEPICTED
INVEST 96S: LIMITED GUIDANCE WITH NO DEVELOPMENT DEPICTED
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 24 Juillet 2019 à 10:07