meteo





INVEST 91W is upgraded to HIGH but possible intensification does appear limited


TCFA/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 18, 2019:

Location: 20.9°N 119.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 35/40km/h)
Gusts: kt (km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 180230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 119.2E TO 22.8N 121.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 119.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 117.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.3E APPROXIMATELY
628 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172316Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 60 NM SOUTHWARD OF A
CONSOLIDATING LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W IS NOW IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30-32C.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD AND TRAILING TS DANAS(06W)
AS AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH LINEAR CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190230Z.//
NNNN

18/0655UTC. DMSP
18/0655UTC. DMSP

18/0230UTC
18/0230UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 18 Juillet 2019 à 12:32