INVEST 91W : Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the JTWC


The area is now HIGH for the next 24hours


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 24, 2019:

Location: 24.7°N 136.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

WTPN21 PGTW 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 136.4E TO 29.1N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.8N 135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY
650 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY  
DISPLAYED TRAITS OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED DEFINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS A
WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD MAINLAND
JAPAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250800Z.//
NNNN

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

 

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE

24/1030UTC
24/1030UTC


24/08UTC
24/08UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 24 Juillet 2019 à 14:28