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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 90S
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN/MOZ CHANNEL INVEST 90S ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 25 KNOTS AT 05/06UTC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 04/18UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 49.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 43.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOCALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 041508Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Model Diagnostic Plot
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Ensemble Track Ellipses
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN INVEST 91S ESTMATED INTENSITY IS 20 KNOTS AT 05/06UTC
