Hikaa(03A) tiny but well organized category 1 cyclone has probably peaked, near Masirah in 12h



Météo974

M974World

NORTH INDIAN

TC Hikaa (03A)
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 23, 2019:

Location: 20.2°N 62.3°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 61.7E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TILTING,
INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 231851Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE AND A 231648Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77KTS) AND A
231330Z SMAP INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INDICATION OF
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST BEGINNING TO HINDER THE SYSTEM.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-29 CELSIUS. TC 03A
WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE ARABIAN SEA. THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND VISIBLE LESS OFTEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS TC 03A
HAS BEGUN TO WRAP DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LAND. OVER LAND AT TAU 24,
TC 03A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN, FALLING
TO 35 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, SUPPORTING OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN



 

CURRENT INTENSITY AT 70KNOTS, CATEGORY 1 US
CURRENT INTENSITY AT 70KNOTS, CATEGORY 1 US

23/1851UTC: TINY SYSTEM BUT SMAP READ 67KNOTS WINDS
23/1851UTC: TINY SYSTEM BUT SMAP READ 67KNOTS WINDS

23/2116UTC
23/2116UTC

23/2120UTC
23/2120UTC

23/2120UTC
23/2120UTC

23/18UTC
23/18UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 24 Septembre 2019 à 03:04