Fung-Wong(28W): Final Warning. Invest 90P: Medium and Invest 94W: Low



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD FUNG-WONG (28W)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 22, 2019:
Location: 25.0°N 125.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 125.6E.
22NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z
IS 14 FEET.//
NNNN
JMV FILE/JTWC
2819111718 112N1424E  15
2819111800 116N1404E  15
2819111806 119N1385E  20
2819111812 122N1366E  20
2819111818 125N1348E  20
2819111900 130N1334E  20
2819111906 140N1312E  20
2819111912 146N1300E  25
2819111918 151N1292E  30
2819112000 164N1284E  35
2819112006 177N1273E  35
2819112012 190N1261E  45
2819112018 195N1253E  55
2819112100 200N1246E  65
2819112106 205N1243E  60
2819112112 211N1242E  55
2819112118 219N1243E  55
2819112200 229N1248E  50
2819112206 240N1252E  45
2819112212 248N1253E  35
NNNN

INVEST 94W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 22, 2019:
Location: 4.3°N 169.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 222200
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.2N 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A
220724Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS
SUPPORTS THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND
NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION BY  TAU
120.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

INVEST 90P
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 22, 2019:

Location: 7.1°S 163.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 222200
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 163.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY
248 NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. A 220721Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90P IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
 

22/2230UTC. CIRA
22/2230UTC. CIRA

28W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
28W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90P: HWRF: 90KTS AT +72H
INVEST 90P: HWRF: 90KTS AT +72H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Novembre 2019 à 01:38