meteo





Francisco:almost a typhoon bearing down on Sasebo. Lekima:forecast peak intensity down. 95W:TCFA


09W: Warning 16/JTWC. 10W: Warning 7. INVEST 95W: Tropical Cyclone formation Alert.


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:
Location: 31.2°N 133.0°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH REVEALS A
TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL EYE FEATURE. THE MICROWAVE EYE
SEEN IN THE 050954Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 050713Z 54 KNOT
SATCON ESTIMATE, A 051210Z ADT ESTIMATE AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-4.5 (65-77). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND FAIR RADIAL
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU AROUND
TAU 06, AND PASS NEAR SASEBO JUST AFTER TAU 12. A SECOND LANDFALL
WILL OCCUR NEAR BUSAN, KOREA AROUND TAU 24 AS THE CYCLONE STARTS
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, TS 09W WILL HAVE ROUNDED
THE STR AXIS, AND IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SEA
OF JAPAN, AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT
RAPIDLY TRACKS OVER JAPAN AND KOREA. BY THE TIME TS 09W EMERGES INTO
THE SEA OF JAPAN, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 KTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AFUM, WHICH TAKES A DIRECT TRACK THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
KOREA, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER
TAU 48, TS 09W WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT AROUND
TAU 72. DESPITE COOL SST AND HIGH VWS, THE INTENSITY SHOULD ONLY
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES
SLIGHTLY TO 80 NM, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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TS LEKIMA(10W)

As of 12:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:

Location: 18.7°N 129.4°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED USING THE MSI AND SHALLOW
BANDING IN A 051230Z METOP-B 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY IS
HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND A 051229Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. A PARTIAL 051230Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THIS INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 10W IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BEING DISTORTED BY TS
09W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS TS 09W MOVES AWAY AND THE STR
BUILDS BEHIND IT. TS 10W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW BALANCES FAVORABLE SST AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR (10-
20 KT). UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED,
DESPITE NVGM SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF TRACK THROUGH TAU 96.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 96. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
FAVORABLE UNTIL LAND INTERACTION EFFECTS ARE INTRODUCED AS IT BEGINS
TRACKING OVER TAIWAN AROUND TAU 90. TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED, DESPITE JGSM DEPARTING FROM CONSENSUS AT TAU
72, UNCERTAINTY STILL LOOMS BETWEEN TAU 120 POSITION OVER COASTAL
CHINA OR FURTHER INLAND. THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND INTERACTION EFFECTS,
RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BASED ON THE
HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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INVEST 95W
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:
Location: 18.1°N 144.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20/25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 051330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 144.8E TO 21.8N 140.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY
283 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY IMPROVING, WITH A BROADER REGION
OF LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (29-31C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SOON AFTER AS IT TAKES A
MEANDERING NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061330Z.//
NNNN
 

09W: WARNING 16.
09W: WARNING 16.

10W: WARNING 7. FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY NOW DOWN TO 55KNOTS IN 48H
10W: WARNING 7. FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY NOW DOWN TO 55KNOTS IN 48H

INVEST 95W: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
INVEST 95W: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

05/1415UTC. FRANCISCO(09W)
05/1415UTC. FRANCISCO(09W)

05/1415UTC
05/1415UTC

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 5 Août 2019 à 18:31