meteo





Eastern North Pacific : INVEST 94E still very likely to intensify next several days over open seas


TCFA/JTWC


TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94E
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 30, 2019:

Location: 9.8°N 106.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
INTENSIFYING

WTPN21 PHNC 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZJUN2019//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N 106.3W TO 11.8N 113.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 106.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 102.W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 106.7W, APPROXIMATELY 1477
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 290200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.
NNNN

02UTC
02UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 30 Juin 2019 à 08:11