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Cyclonic trio: 14W, 15W and 16W: updates


14W: Warning 5/JTWC. 15W: Warning 4/JTWC. 16W: Warning 1/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS 14W
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 02, 2019:
Location: 16.9°N 164.0°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021821Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 14W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS REMAIN WEAK. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 14W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
   3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS 14W TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TS 14W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TROUGH TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 113 NM BY TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30
DEGREES CELSIUS), FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 415 NM. NAVGEM IS THE NOTABLE
OUTLIER AND RE-CURVES TS 14W SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THAN THE REST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

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TS LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 02, 2019:
Location: 19.0°N 124.2°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE TIGHTLY WRAPPING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TS 15W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 15W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE FOR TS 15W IN THE SHORT TERM. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 15W TO
QUICKLY INTENSIFY, REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TS 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE ALONG TRACK SPEED OF TS 15W. NAVGEM IS THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER WHICH INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED BY
TAU 72. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK SPEED. THE
MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 72 IS 350 NM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE LONG TERM, TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING WEST TO
EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 15W
NORTHWARD. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE AGAIN OUTLIERS WITH REGARDS TO TRACK
SPEED. GFS INDICATES A SLOWER SPEED WHILE NAVGEM INDICATES A FASTER
TRACK SPEED. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO TRACKERS AT TAU 120 IS 610
NM. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

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TD 16W
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 02, 2019:
Location: 16.8°N 107.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
WDPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS LOCATED OVERTOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021318Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK FIXES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND HAS FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 29-30 CELSIUS. TD 16W IS TRACKING
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AS IT
TRANSITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND HUE CITY, VIETNAM
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 6. ONCE OVER LAND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE
WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

 

14W: WARNING 5
14W: WARNING 5

15W: WARNING 4
15W: WARNING 4

16W: WARNING 1
16W: WARNING 1

02/22UTC RAMMB
02/22UTC RAMMB

14W: 02/18UTC
14W: 02/18UTC

15W: 02/18UTC
15W: 02/18UTC

16W: 02/18UTC
16W: 02/18UTC

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

16W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
16W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 3 Septembre 2019 à 01:53