Cyclone FANI(01B) category 3 US, forecast to be close to the Puri/Ratanpur area in 48hours


Warning 18/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/


TC FANI(01B)
As of 06:00 UTC May 01, 2019:

Location: 14.2°N 84.0°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 mb
CATEGORY 3 US

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 563 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)   
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A RAGGED,
FORMATIVE EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. EIR IMAGERY AND A 010430Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
HOWEVER, DEPICT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS)
AND A 010545Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE VWS
OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS (30-31C) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
TC FANI IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT
DAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, TC 01B WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01B WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST INDIA AND WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A MODEL SPREAD
OF 150NM AT TAU 72 AND A GREATER SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVER
LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

FORECAST APPROACH TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE
FORECAST APPROACH TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE

 

0830UTC
0830UTC

08UTC
08UTC

CLICK TO ANIMATE
CLICK TO ANIMATE

0830UTC
0830UTC


HWRF AT 00UTC: 109KT AT +48H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 109KT AT +48H

GFS AT 00UTC: 92KT AT +30H
GFS AT 00UTC: 92KT AT +30H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 1 Mai 2019 à 14:54