meteo





Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast landfall near Coen shortly after 12hours as a 35knots TC


Center increasingly exposed north of flaring convection


WARNING 11/JTWC
WARNING 11/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-forecast-to-make-landfall-near-Coen-in-24-hours-as-a-35knots-cyclone_a829.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-on-a-weakening-trend-forecast-landfall-near-Coen-in-36-hours_a827.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 06:00 UTC May 14, 2019:

Location: 14.5°S 147.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h )
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h )
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb


REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 146.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FLARING 50NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON THE DIMINISHING
CONVECTION AND THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS), WHICH IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF 2.0 (30 KTS). AN
OBSERVATION FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF, 64NM TO THE SOUTHWEST, READS 33
KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND 1009MB. WHILE THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE SOUTH, THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PAST THE REEF
BASED ON THE OBSERVATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST IS IMPINGING UPON THE
SYSTEM AND SHEARING THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS BATTLING CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR TO SUSTAIN THE SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SUGGESTS THE
PRESENCE OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR, WHICH ALONG WITH THE VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING. TC 27P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 27P IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER CAPE YORK, CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND VWS
INCREASES, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z,
142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAT COEN AS A 35KNOTS CYCLONE
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAT COEN AS A 35KNOTS CYCLONE

0730UTC. EXPOSED CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
0730UTC. EXPOSED CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH

06UTC
06UTC

0552UTC: CENTER INCREASINGLY EXPOSED
0552UTC: CENTER INCREASINGLY EXPOSED


HWRF AT 00UTC: 50KT AT +6H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 50KT AT +6H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 14 Mai 2019 à 12:37