CAT 2 US 11S(FREDDY)immediate landfall near Quelimane tracking toward MALAWI forecast clockwise u-turn by 48h//Invest 99P: TCFA re-issued//1115utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 11S(FREDDY). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 99P.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED BY THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE DENSE AND COMPACT WHILE MAINTAINING A SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE, TIGHTLY WRAPPED FEEDER BANDS, AND A WELL-DEFINED PINHOLE EYE AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE ITS SECONDARY LANDFALL INTO MOZAMBIQUE NEAR QUELIMANE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR, IMMEDIATELY MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK TOWARD MALAWI BUT WILL MAKE A CLOCKWISE U-TURN BY TAU 48 NEAR THE BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE THE RAPID EROSION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AFTER IT MAKES A U-TURN IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION BACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL U-TURN, ALBEIT IN VARYING TRACK SPEEDS AND DEGREE OF TURN, WITH SOME OFFERING A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE SOLUTION. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH LAND PASSAGE, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 167.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 164.6W, APPROXIMATELY 307 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 110432Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A 102043Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMATIVE BANDING. INVEST 99P IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE SPCZ AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10KT) VWS AND WARM (27-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL DEVELOP GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL DEVELOP GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.