TY 22W
Météo974
TY BUALOI(22W)
Location: 20.4°N 143.1°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 938 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH AN 8 NM ROUND
EYE, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, A
221634Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 128 KTS, AND A 221740Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 127 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
125 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE WESTERN WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON A 221217Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AROUND TAU 12, TY 22W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS,
GRADUALLY RECURVING TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AND
BEGINS INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 36.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VWS VALUES (>30 KTS) WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH COMPLETION PRIOR TO TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. FOLLOWING THE RECURVE,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE, INCREASING TO A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 283 NM BY TAU 72 WITH THE NAVGEM SOLUTION AS AN
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD AFTER ETT, THUS THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
Location: 37.2°N 144.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN
Location: 15.1°N 66.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 221604Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT REVEALS DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD IN
STRUCTURE AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT VARYING TIMELINES OF DEVELOPMENT.
NAVGEM LEADS DEVELOPMENT, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 36 WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SLOWER DEVELOPEMENT TIMELINES OF 72
HOURS AND 120 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFICTY BUALOI(22W)
Location: 20.4°N 143.1°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 938 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH AN 8 NM ROUND
EYE, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, A
221634Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 128 KTS, AND A 221740Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 127 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
125 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE WESTERN WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON A 221217Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AROUND TAU 12, TY 22W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS,
GRADUALLY RECURVING TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AND
BEGINS INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 36.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VWS VALUES (>30 KTS) WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH COMPLETION PRIOR TO TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. FOLLOWING THE RECURVE,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE, INCREASING TO A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 283 NM BY TAU 72 WITH THE NAVGEM SOLUTION AS AN
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD AFTER ETT, THUS THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
Location: 37.2°N 144.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN
Location: 15.1°N 66.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 221604Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT REVEALS DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD IN
STRUCTURE AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT VARYING TIMELINES OF DEVELOPMENT.
NAVGEM LEADS DEVELOPMENT, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 36 WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SLOWER DEVELOPEMENT TIMELINES OF 72
HOURS AND 120 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
22/18UTC: INVEST 97A UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
CLICK TO ANIMATE
22/2030UTC
22W: 22/18UTC
22W: 22/12UTC
22W: 22/0927UTC
22W: 22/06UTC
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 97A: GFS ENSEMBLE
