BAY OF BENGAL: 91B likely to develop next few days


Tropical cyclone formation alert issued by the JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
INVEST 91B
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 26, 2019:
Location: 3.0°N 89.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
WTIO21 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.7N 89.5E TO 7.7N 86.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.0N
89.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.8N 90.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 610
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 260323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT,
FRAGMENTED BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A BROAD CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 260324Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
QUADRANT AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
91B BORDERING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C) SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270900Z.//
NNNN


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GUIDANCE FOR 91B
GUIDANCE FOR 91B

GUIDANCE FOR 91B
GUIDANCE FOR 91B

GUIDANCE FOR 91B
GUIDANCE FOR 91B
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 26 Avril 2019 à 14:26