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BAY OF BENGAL: 02B(YAAS) now a 60knot cyclone,forecast to reach US/CAT 1 within 24hours while making landfall near BHITARKANINKA National Park/India by 24h, 25/03utc update



2021 MAY 25 0230UTC #NORTHINDIAN #GULFOFBENGAL
TC #02B #YAAS
WARNING 5
As of 00:00 UTC May 25, 2021:
Location: 18.2°N 88.1°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 25/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 335KM SOUTHEAST OF BHUBANESHWAR, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TC 02B(YAAS). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 25/03UTC.TC 02B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST  WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (31-32 C) SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  (15-20 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MARGINALLY  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UP TO LANDFALL AT 26/00Z  AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG  THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER  12H, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO
TC 02B(YAAS). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 25/03UTC.TC 02B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (31-32 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UP TO LANDFALL AT 26/00Z AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 12H, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO

TC 02B(YAAS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 65 KM AT 24H, LENDING  HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
TC 02B(YAAS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 65 KM AT 24H, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

TC 02B(YAAS). WARNING 5. FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR BHITARKANINKA NATIONAL PARK IN 24H.
TC 02B(YAAS). WARNING 5. FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR BHITARKANINKA NATIONAL PARK IN 24H.

TC 02B(YAAS). 24/18UTC.AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS 74KNOT PEAK INTENSITY AT +12H.
TC 02B(YAAS). 24/18UTC.AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS 74KNOT PEAK INTENSITY AT +12H.

TC 02B(YAAS). 25/0230UTC.  Eumetsat/PH.
TC 02B(YAAS). 25/0230UTC. Eumetsat/PH.

25/00UTC.
25/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, May 25th 2021 à 07:31