29/06utc, Updates on Invest 96P, 94P, 98S and the remnants of 13S(NONAME).


29/0530UTC.JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96P. INVEST 94P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM WHILE INVEST 98S IS NOW UNDER CLOSE WATCH. THE REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME) ARE STILL BEING MONITORED.


29/0530UTC.JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96P. INVEST 94P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM WHILE INVEST 98S IS NOW UNDER CLOSE WATCH. THE REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME) ARE STILL BEING MONITORED.
29/0530UTC.JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96P. INVEST 94P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM WHILE INVEST 98S IS NOW UNDER CLOSE WATCH. THE REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME) ARE STILL BEING MONITORED.
2021 JAN 29 0830UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST #96P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 29, 2021:
Location: 15.6°S 173.2°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 29/06UTC APPRX 625KM NORTHWEST OF SUVA/FIJI. HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14KM/H FOR THE PAST 6HOURS.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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REMNANTS OF TC #13S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 29, 2021:
Location: 17.6°S 78.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #94P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 29, 2021:
Location: 13.7°S 144.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM
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INVEST #98S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
 UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 29, 2021:
Location: 17.0°S 125.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 96P.MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHEREAS A 282133Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS HIGHER (30 KTS) WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
INVEST 96P.MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHEREAS A 282133Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS HIGHER (30 KTS) WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.

INVEST 96P.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT  WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND  MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL  AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT  CONSOLIDATES.
INVEST 96P.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES.

INVEST 94P.SATELLITE IMAGERY  AND RADAR DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS).
INVEST 94P.SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS).

INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO  MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW  DAYS.
INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

INVEST 98S. IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OVER LAND.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98S TRACKS OVER WATER.
INVEST 98S. IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OVER LAND.UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE VERY WARM (30-31C), PROVIDING A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT INVEST 98S TRACKS OVER WATER.

INVEST 98S. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
INVEST 98S. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST AS IT STRENGTHENS, CONSOLIDATES, AND LATER ON MOVE INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.

REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME). ASCAT-B AT 29/0420UTC READ 30KNOTS WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
REMNANTS OF 13S(NONAME). ASCAT-B AT 29/0420UTC READ 30KNOTS WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.


29/00UTC.
29/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 29 Janvier 2021 à 13:20