26S(SEROJA) is approaching WA coastline while slightly intensifying/Invest 92P tracked across New Caledonia, Invest 94W now on the map, 10/15utc update


10/14UTC. 7H LOOP. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


10/14UTC. 7H LOOP. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
10/14UTC. 7H LOOP. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 APR 10 15UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST 94W  #WESTERNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 3.0°N 144.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  LOW
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TC #26S #SEROJA  #SOUTHINDIAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 25
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 21.5°S 108.7°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
INTENSIFYING
26S(SEROJA) LOCATED AT 10/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 560 KM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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REMNANTS OF TC 27S #ODETTE  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 24.0°S 112.1°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
WEAKENING
FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 10/09UTC.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST 91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 13.9°S 101.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST 92P  #SOUTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 10, 2021:
Location: 21.8°S 165.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

26S(SEROJA). WARNING 25 IUSSED AT 10/15UTC. TC 26S LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20  KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. TC 26S HAS  ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND IS NOW ESTABLISHED ON A SOUTHEASTWARD  TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD  THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF  INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM  MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, RAPIDLY  INCREASING SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL COLLUDE TO RAPIDLY  WEAKEN TC 26S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL  TRANSITION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AT OR JUST AFTER 24H AS IT BEGINS  TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES UNDER THE STRONG  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST  AUSTRALIA, IT IS EXPECTED TO FULLY TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36H.
26S(SEROJA). WARNING 25 IUSSED AT 10/15UTC. TC 26S LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. TC 26S HAS ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND IS NOW ESTABLISHED ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, RAPIDLY INCREASING SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL COLLUDE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 26S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AT OR JUST AFTER 24H AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES UNDER THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, IT IS EXPECTED TO FULLY TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36H.

26S(SEROJA). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD  AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
26S(SEROJA). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

INVEST 94W. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH  ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,  AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN  GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST  94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18  KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
INVEST 94W. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

INVEST 92P.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES  INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL  DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20  KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES. ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INVEST 92P IS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH  BOTH TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN  GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE  INTENSIFYING AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INVEST 92P IS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH BOTH TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.

INVEST 91S.
INVEST 91S.

10/15UTC.
10/15UTC.

THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 26S(SEROJA). FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 10/09UTC ON TC 27S(ODETTE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 26S,27S,92P,91S. INVEST 94W IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 25KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS.
THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 26S(SEROJA). FINAL WARNING WAS ISSUED AT 10/09UTC ON TC 27S(ODETTE). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 26S,27S,92P,91S. INVEST 94W IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 25KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 10 Avril 2021 à 19:30