REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 201652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT VIEW OF THE LOWER LEVEL EYE
FEATURE, AND PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 61 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS AND THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CENTRAL
CIRCULATION. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. THIS
SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER
WHICH THE STORM WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST AS A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THIS RIDGE MOVES UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, DRIVING TC 15P ONTO A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE LOW VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET THE COOL SSTS, WHICH
WILL HOVER AROUND 26 CELSIUS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS COOL, DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE
SYSTEM, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
202100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 201652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT VIEW OF THE LOWER LEVEL EYE
FEATURE, AND PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 61 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS AND THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CENTRAL
CIRCULATION. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. THIS
SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER
WHICH THE STORM WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST AS A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THIS RIDGE MOVES UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, DRIVING TC 15P ONTO A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE LOW VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET THE COOL SSTS, WHICH
WILL HOVER AROUND 26 CELSIUS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS COOL, DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE
SYSTEM, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN
20UTC
