2019 FEB 19 2345UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 35knots TS.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 844 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
191901Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON MI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM
RJTD AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM,
EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO NEAR GUAM, WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITHOUT AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECMF AND EEMN INDICATES A
FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS A NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
DUE TO THE LACK OF A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR.
TS 02W IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS
SOUTH OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 35knots TS.
WARNING 3/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 3 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 19, 2019:
Location: 4.5°N 155.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 192100 Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 3 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 19, 2019:
Location: 4.5°N 155.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 844 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
191901Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON MI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM
RJTD AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM,
EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO NEAR GUAM, WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WITHOUT AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECMF AND EEMN INDICATES A
FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS A NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
DUE TO THE LACK OF A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR.
TS 02W IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS
SOUTH OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Click to animate the image.
